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policy report

Threshold 2030

Modeling AI Economic Futures

A two-day conference in Oct 2024 bringing together 30 leading economists, AI policy experts, and professional forecasters to rapidly evaluate the economic impacts of frontier AI technologies by 2030.

Download Full Report

report authors

Deric Cheng

Research Lead at Convergence

Elliot McKernon

Researcher at Convergence

Deger Turan

CEO of Metaculus

Yashvardhan Sharma

Editor

Alex Foster

Editor

Justin Bullock

Senior Researcher at Convergence

Host organizations

Attendees

Key Takeaways

Section 1

Comprehensive Summary

A detailed, 8-page summary consolidating the methodology, activities, and major conclusions from the Threshold 2030 conference.

12 minute read

Section 1

Comprehensive Summary

A detailed, 8-page summary consolidating the methodology, activities, and major conclusions from the Threshold 2030 conference.

12 minute read

Section 1

Comprehensive Summary

A detailed, 8-page summary consolidating the methodology, activities, and major conclusions from the Threshold 2030 conference.

12 minute read

Section 2

Conference Context & Overview

A summary of the logistics of the conference, motivation, and host organizations.

3 minute read

Section 2

Conference Context & Overview

A summary of the logistics of the conference, motivation, and host organizations.

3 minute read

Section 2

Conference Context & Overview

A summary of the logistics of the conference, motivation, and host organizations.

3 minute read

Section 3

Proposed Scenarios

During the conference, attendees engaged in a series of exercises to explore three different scenarios of AI capabilities advancement by 2030.

8 minute read

Section 3

Proposed Scenarios

During the conference, attendees engaged in a series of exercises to explore three different scenarios of AI capabilities advancement by 2030.

8 minute read

Section 3

Proposed Scenarios

During the conference, attendees engaged in a series of exercises to explore three different scenarios of AI capabilities advancement by 2030.

8 minute read

Section 4

Part 1: Worldbuilding

Attendees created and discussed detailed, realistic descriptions of global societies and economies in 2030, focusing on their domains of expertise.

27 minute read

Section 4

Part 1: Worldbuilding

Attendees created and discussed detailed, realistic descriptions of global societies and economies in 2030, focusing on their domains of expertise.

27 minute read

Section 4

Part 1: Worldbuilding

Attendees created and discussed detailed, realistic descriptions of global societies and economies in 2030, focusing on their domains of expertise.

27 minute read

Section 5

Part 2: Economic Causal Models

Attendees created economic diagrams describing variables (e.g. labor automation, productivity) and observables that impact top-level measures of economic health.

31 minute read

Section 5

Part 2: Economic Causal Models

Attendees created economic diagrams describing variables (e.g. labor automation, productivity) and observables that impact top-level measures of economic health.

31 minute read

Section 5

Part 2: Economic Causal Models

Attendees created economic diagrams describing variables (e.g. labor automation, productivity) and observables that impact top-level measures of economic health.

31 minute read

Section 6

Part 3: Forecasting

Attendees applied Tetlockian forecasting techniques to key economic questions and generated useful forecasting questions to track.

18 minute read

Section 6

Part 3: Forecasting

Attendees applied Tetlockian forecasting techniques to key economic questions and generated useful forecasting questions to track.

18 minute read

Section 6

Part 3: Forecasting

Attendees applied Tetlockian forecasting techniques to key economic questions and generated useful forecasting questions to track.

18 minute read

Section 7

Promising Future Research Ideas

Our report authors identified nine plausible research questions, split into four categories, stemming from upcoming challenges identified by attendees.

4 minute read

Section 7

Promising Future Research Ideas

Our report authors identified nine plausible research questions, split into four categories, stemming from upcoming challenges identified by attendees.

4 minute read

Section 7

Promising Future Research Ideas

Our report authors identified nine plausible research questions, split into four categories, stemming from upcoming challenges identified by attendees.

4 minute read

Section 8

Conclusions

We summarize six key conclusions from our report, discussing major takeaways, key upcoming research topics, and critical challenges faving society.

6 minute read

Section 8

Conclusions

We summarize six key conclusions from our report, discussing major takeaways, key upcoming research topics, and critical challenges faving society.

6 minute read

Section 8

Conclusions

We summarize six key conclusions from our report, discussing major takeaways, key upcoming research topics, and critical challenges faving society.

6 minute read

Appendix